Global Tourism Barometer - October / November 2001

Executive Summary

Following the World Trade Centre terrorist attacks, the US military strikes on Afghanistan and the collapse of Ansett, there is significant concern about the likely impact on the international tourism market in Australia.

From the ATC Roadshows that were proceeding at the time of the 11 September terrorist attacks, the call was made for leadership and information to assist the industry during this difficult period.

To this end the ATC has conducted surveys of both the Australian tourism industry and key international partners to gather information to provide insight on the effects to date of the events on the tourism industry, as well as the anticipated impact in the short term.

The Global Markets Barometer focuses on international tourism operators that sell Australian product or holidays as part of their business operations and the Australian Tourism Barometer on Australian tourism suppliers active in the international market.

Global Markets Barometer Online Survey of International Operators in Region - October 2001

Global Tourism Barometer Online Survey of Australian Inbound Tourism Operators - November 2001

Methodology

For the Global Markets Barometer, international operators in region sourced from ATC lists of Australian Tourism Exchange buyers, aussie specialist travel agents and other key regional partners, were invited to participate in the survey. More than 200 respondents completed the Global Markets Barometer survey.

The Australian Tourism Barometer participants were sourced from the ATC's and Australian Tourism Export Council's databases. More than 200 respondents also completed the Australian Tourism Industry Barometer survey.

The Global Markets Barometer survey was conducted 22-28 October 2001 and the Australian Tourism Barometer between 23-29 October 2001.

Global Markets - Key Findings

1. There was an average of 13 per cent of bookings cancelled since 11 September 2001. Just fewer than three in ten of all operators reported 10 per cent or more cancellations and one fifth reported 20 per cent or more cancellations. Operators from Europe were more likely to indicate lower levels of cancellations.
2. Over half of all international operators reported enquiry levels for Australia were down compared to the average for this time of year.
   • Enquiries for Australia were down an average of 20 per cent.
   • Over one quarter of all operators reported enquiries were down by over 30 per cent.
   • Operators from the Americas reported a considerably larger drop in enquiries.
   • Those operators who had Australian programs accounting for over 30 per cent of their total business and those operators focused on the leisure sector were more likely to report decreased enquiry levels.
3. Since 11 September new bookings for Australia were reported to be down compared to the average for this time of year by 52 per cent of international operators.
   • New bookings were down an average of 23 per cent across all operators.
   • Just fewer than three in ten operators reported that new bookings for Australia were down by over 30 per cent.
   • Operators from the Americas, those with higher proportions of Australian business and those focused on the leisure sector were more likely to report decreases in new bookings for Australia.
4. Shorter haul travel has performed better than longer haul travel in general. Evidence of this can be seen by Australia being worse off according to operators from Europe and the Americas compared to operators from the rest of the world.
5. Travel to the USA market has been hit particularly hard by the events of 11 September and beyond.
   Nearly half of all operators who sell travel to the USA reported bookings to the USA had declined by over 50 per cent (compared with the average for this time of year). This is across operators from all regions with no distinction for short or long haul.

Australian Tourism - Key Findings

Projected revenue

• Around two thirds of Australian operators reported that their projected revenue for the next three months would fall compared to the same period last year.
  • Over one in ten reported that this fall would be over 30 per cent.
  • Operators with nationwide coverage and those with larger total numbers of staff were more likely to predict a decrease.
• Results for specific source markets:
  • The US market was predicted to be one of the hardest hit (74 per cent reported a decrease in projected revenue and 31 per cent reported a fall of over 30 per cent).
  • The New Zealand market was expected to be more resilient (20 per cent reported a decrease in projected revenue and only 2 per cent reported a fall of over 30 per cent).
  • Asia (34 per cent and 8 per cent over 30 per cent) was also expected to be relatively less effected.

Forward bookings

• 6 in 10 Australian operators expect a fall in international forward bookings for the next three months compared to the same period last year.
  • 14 per cent reported that this fall would be over 30 per cent.
  • Nationwide operators, those from Queensland and those with larger numbers of total staff, were more likely to predict a decrease.
• Results for specific source markets:
  • The US market was again expected to be one of the hardest hit (76 per cent reported a decrease in forward bookings and 34 per cent reported a fall of over 30 per cent).
  • The New Zealand market was expected to be more resilient (19 per cent reported a decrease in forward bookings and only 2 per cent reported a fall of over 30 per cent).
  • Again, Asia (39 per cent and 5 per cent over 30 per cent) was also expected to be relatively less effected.

Business confidence

• For the first time a business confidence score was included in this ATC questionnaire. Operators were generally pessimistic about the coming six months.
• About 6 in 10 felt that the next three months and the first quarter of 2002 would be either somewhat or much worse than the same period last year.
• As with the other key results, nationwide operators and Queensland operators were more pessimistic about the future.
• Tour operators were also more negative about the first quarter of 2002 in particular.